Phew! What a rollercoaster. As the esteemed business guru Mike Tyson used to say, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.” Coming so soon after COVID, and the apparent recovery of the ensuing increased production levels during 2021/22, it is probably fair to say that the challenges presented by 2023 were unanticipated.
The sudden downturn in commissions from both UK terrestrial broadcasters and the streamers meant that the year got off to an unusually uncertain start. When members of the Writers Guild of America downed their pens in May, the uncertainty evolved into a growing concern as productions gradually started to come to a halt. By the time the actors began their own industrial action, the sudden and immediate impact was felt throughout the English-speaking film and TV industry.
In commercial terms, for several of our customers the simultaneous strikes presented an existential threat far graver and more immediate than the preceding pandemic because it was largely unnoticed by the wider population – it was something happening “over there” in the US. And while the streamers all continued to bulge with content, and the cinemas were filled with “Barbenheimer” audiences, it was not impacting the lives of the viewer in any obvious way.
But with the taps turned off and no furlough or other government assistance, a significant portion of the film-making community faced a major crisis and two-thirds of the year without any work. We spent much of our time fielding calls from concerned customers who were looking ahead and worrying, and helping many of them restructure their obligations or obtain forbearance.
Meanwhile we became aware that manufacturers and resellers were all experiencing sudden and significant reductions in turnover because no-one was buying new kit; four and three-day weeks were implemented by some service and supply companies; and redundancies began as others wrestled with managing their reduced cashflow. We heard stories of struggle from many and varied small businesses and freelancers providing hair-and make-up; set-building; costume design; transport and logistics; and others, all worrying that their livelihoods were grinding to a halt.
Fortunately, ground-breaking deals were agreed with both unions before the end of last year and we all remain hopeful that a recovery in the production market can be sustained long enough for some genuine confidence to return, but the structure of the industry has become confusing.
The streamers have evolved to a position of dominant market control, which initially led to general excitement at the mammoth scale of production budgets. However, their dominance and new way of business ultimately led to the industrial disputes that defined 2023.
Clearly the lockdown era had encouraged many households to double (or even treble/quadruple) up on their streaming subscriptions, but now that subscribers are receiving notice of forthcoming 20%+ price increases how long is the multi-platform model sustainable? It is possible the alternative two-tier approach from Amazon of “adverts-or-not” pricing will accelerate a subscriber exodus and further market correction.
All of which makes the continuing frenzy to build new studio space and sound stages appear as if no-one is joining the dots up or, at the risk of mixing my metaphors, perhaps the rollercoaster is to continue for a while yet.
Fortunately, while this is working itself out (as it will), we can still look forward to a bumper broadcast “even number” year of Olympic Games and Euro Championships, both huge technical and financial projects at which the UK broadcast industry excels. Although if sports are not your thing, we are already seeing an upturn in drama greenlights for projects going into production over the next six months. With new tax credits for British film, TV and video game makers coming into force on January 1, maybe this all bodes well for 2024 and beyond after all.
Maybe the creative industries will continue to buck the trends as they always have.
We are only into the second week of the year and, surely, the industry is entitled to enjoy some collective bathing in reflected glory given that, despite the continuing war-torn tragedies across the globe and the increasing depth of floodwater threatening us all, the news cycle is currently dominated by the astonishing story of the Sub-Postmasters and their plight which has gripped the nation to such an extent that real-life drama is now unfolding on a daily basis as a direct result of a TV drama.
The Prime Minister has announced plans in Parliament to enact new legislation for the collective fast-tracking and quashing of hundreds of convictions; millions of ordinary people have signed a petition calling for the stripping of Paula Vennells’ CBE – and she has read the room sufficiently to capitulate and hand back her honour voluntarily; and the Metropolitan Police and SFO have begun investigations into fraud and criminal behaviour of employees of both Post Office and Fujitsu.
These are extraordinary events by any measure, but this has been an extraordinary story for a long time. Computer Weekly first reported the problems in 2009, 9 years after the first convictions. Private Eye has been commenting on the issue for almost as long, as has the mainstream press. The issue has previously been reported on TV, with Panorama among others first covering the story from an investigative angle in 2015.
However, until the quite brilliant ITV drama aired, public opinion had not been captured and remedial events were moving at glacial speed. The drama has grabbed the attention of the media like no other form of communication can, and genuinely demonstrated the power of quality television production.
Congratulations to everyone involved in making what will surely become recognised as one of the most important TV programmes in history. To have done so against the backdrop of 2023 is an astonishing feat on another level. I expect we don’t need to bother turning up to any awards ceremonies now, as the winner is pretty nailed on!
In the meantime, thank you to all of you who trusted Adamantean with your business last year – we hope you enjoyed the sprouts! If you know, you know. If you don’t, give us a call.
As finance providers specialising in the media industries, we consider ourselves to be a small but vital cog in the machinery of creativity, and we like to think that funding remains quite important to anyone involved in the production process.
We’ve all had to be resilient in weathering the collective impacts of the strikes so soon after the Pandemic. Adamantean remains here to support you through what we confidently predict will be a non-extraordinary, uneventful, predictable and stress-free year.
Good luck to you all for 2024, it’s sure to be none of those things.